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  • What’s Next For Gold?



    By Adam Button

    Market watchers are still trying to pull themselves together after the rout in the gold market yesterday. Some are busy tossing out a half-dozen reasons for the drop while the gold bugs roll out embarrassing conspiracy theories.
    “The exchange value of the dollar is [being] threatened, and if that collapses the Fed loses control over interest rates. Then the bond market blows up, the stock market blows up, and the banks that are too big to fail, fail. So it’s an act of desperation, because they’ve got to establish in people’s minds that the dollar is the only safe place, it is the only safe haven, not gold, not silver, and not other currencies,” one-time assistant U.S. treasury secretary Paul Craig Roberts.
    To me it’s simple: The break of the triple-bottom at $1522 set off a round of cascading, stop-driven sales — a classic panic.
    Yesterday humbled the bottom pickers in gold but lets take a look at the chart.

    Gold broke the 55-month moving average twice yesterday and spent about 4 hours below the mark. That’s significant but it’s not yet enough to definitively say a line that has held for 10 years is broken. The other key support is the 2011 low of $1308.
    One of the easiest trading mistakes to make…
    is to bet on bounces. The $40 rebound today might have some bulls feeling self-assured but they are weak hands and will flee if gold begins to slide again.
    I think the gold bulls’ psyche has been damaged by the latest swoon and the path will continue to be lower. At this point, it’s all about finding the right time to sell. Gold hasn’t even touched the $38.2% retracement at $1416 and that’s the first sign of continued pressure for me.


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