Articles


  • Are You Trading Too Much?



    It’s a slim little booklet titled One-Way Pockets by Don Guyon (a pen name for a broker). The book, which was first published in 1917, covers some studies he did on the trading behavior of accounts at the time. What he found was timeless.

    The language is charmingly stuck in the World War I era. “At the fag-end of the never-to-be-forgotten ‘war brides’ market,” he begins, “I began, in a casual sort of way, to analyze the accounts of half a dozen of the firm’s most active traders.”

    During the “war brides” market of 1914-15, defense stocks and industrials surged in response to the outbreak of World War I. [Editor’s note: “War bride” was a nickname for what we now call “defense stocks.”] But Guyon found that even though such stocks had already made large moves up, his firm’s clients had big stakes in them with small profits. This was not a unique circumstance. Guyon found that this was the way the top of every bull market looked, in his experience in the brokerage business. In 1917, there was a bear market, and these traders lost money.

    Why?


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